It’s been awhile since I’ve posted and there’s a lot to say, but let me leave that for another time and link this, this is incredibly important:

http://sonichurricane.com/?p=2029

During the course of an otherwise effective offensive sequence, you may attempt to bait a reversal which your opponent refuses to take – landing you in an awkward neutral situation. What should you do after a wrong guess costs you momentum?

Well, i don’t think there’s a universal answer to that question. Certain characters might have situation-specific tricks to artificially extend momentum, but it’s a mistake to assume that you ought to cling to momentum forever. Ideally, you want to strike a calculated balance between offensive and defensive play to give yourself the upper hand under all circumstances. Obviously momentum grants significant advantages, but making desperate wagers to preserve it exposes you to dangerous pitfalls.

Well-played matches should look like you’re consistently in control and your strategy is overall superior. You don’t necessarily have to win every single rock/paper/scissors instance. If that were true then the absolute highest regarded moments in Street Fighter history would be lopsided Makoto or Dudley massacres where one player happens to guess right every time. Clearly that’s not the case because we all consider those to be flukes.

Being able to maintain momentum is less important than being able to build it up from neutral equilibrium. To become a great offensive player, you need to develop an arsenal of reliable ways to break through the opponent’s defensive mid-range zone. Once you gain confidence in your ability to accomplish this task at will, you’ll stop overvaluing momentum to the point of risking entire matches to hang onto it.

In fact, the biggest drawback to offensive progression is that you gradually lose track of your opponent’s intentions. Let’s say you manage to pull off an uninterrupted mini-surge consisting of two throws, a sweep, and a psychic DP. That’s roughly eight seconds where you haven’t seen your opponent do anything except get knocked down and stand up again. You won’t catch too many hints from watching them do that.

If they happen to have super meter available, how do you decide whether they’ll use it on wakeup? Remember, it’s been almost ten seconds since the last visual sign you read from their movements. When you’re playing online or on a head-to-head arcade cabinet, you can’t even sense what their body language is saying. At that point, you’re simply working the odds and hoping that they don’t have enough mental composure to play smart or outguess you.

Sometimes it’s a good idea to block that super, even if you can’t punish it afterwards. Yes, you could punish by predictively jumping straight up, but that’s a huge gamble. If they remain calm enough to block, they’ll get up with plenty of time to react to your desperate attempt – either landing that super for full damage or responding with the appropriate anti-air to seize momentum without even sacrificing their meter.

It’s usually not worth the risk. You think you’re closing out the match but what you’re really doing is leaving the door open for a comeback. Block the super, drain their meter, surrender momentum, and build it back up again. It won’t be too difficult because they’ll still be shaken from having given away a huge advantage. Even if they get up and do nothing, you’ll have plenty of opportunities to bait that super and you can always think of safer avenues of attack.

Returning to the original question, if you put your momentum on the line to bait an uppercut and they don’t fall for your trap, sometimes the best thing to do is wait. Don’t bail them out by doing anything easily punishable. If you wait, they might still throw out something dumb. You definitely shouldn’t feel like you have to rush in there and push more buttons.